Data Fit - Crossfit Open 17.2 Analysis

The second workout of the Crossfit open is officially over, and it was brutal...if you could see my palms right now, you would get an idea of the extent. Although the entire workout was tough, the real star of the 17.2 show was the muscle up. Looking at the analytics and the drops in numbers, it becomes apparent that the bar muscle up was a make it or break it point for the majority of athletes. 

THE WORKOUT

If you're unfamiliar with the 17.2 workout we have listed it below: 

17.2 - Beware the Muscle-Ups
12 Minute AMRAP
2 Rounds of
50ft Walking Lunges (50/35)
16 Toes To Bar (T2B)
8 Dumbbell Power Cleans (50/35)
Followed By 2 Rounds of
50ft Walking Lunges
16 Bar Muscle Ups (BMU)
8 Dumbbell Power Cleans

This workout was crafted so that if you had Toes to Bar, you could do it RX (as prescribed) and then spend the rest of the time working on getting your first muscle up. The open has a certain amount of magic to it where people find the energy and motivation to do things that they have never done before and this year was no exception. We will show this later in the analysis. 

PARTICIPATION

Our first analysis will be a comparison between completion numbers from 17.1 and 17.2. These can be seen in the table below.

Gender Type 17.1 17.2 % Diff
Male RX 180915 130105 32.6%
Scaled 34250
Female RX 138019 71768 63.1%
Scaled 56873

If you look at the table, you can see a significant drop off in the number of workouts completed RX (as prescribed). The numbers above start to tell the story of the effect muscle ups had on the completion rate of 17.2. 

Looking at this you can see a substantial number of people scaled this workout compared to 17.1. This makes sense, particularly given the difficulty of gymnastics involved. If you don't even have a chest to bar or are struggling with pull-ups, then it could make sense to scale it and get a better all around workout. 

OVERALL DISTRIBUTION, PERCENTILES & THE REAL ASSASIN

If you're reading this article because you want to see where you stacked up against the competition, looking at the percentiles will give you a good idea. 

The graph below represents the overall distribution of scores in this workout for the RX division. Because the distribution is so heavily concentrated around the 78 rep range, we will look at a smaller range of results to understand the data better.

Number of Results (Y) vs. Total Number of Reps (X)

Number of Results (Y) vs. Total Number of Reps (X)

The biggest spike above represents the point at which muscle ups enter the workout. Around twenty-five thousand men and women did not make it past the BMU's. The other rather large bump is where the second round of BMU's come into play. The significance of percentiles and getting at least two BMU's can be observed in the table below.

Percentile Men Women
10% 78 55
20% 78 78
30% 79 78
40% 83 78
50% 89 78
60% 104 78
70% 114 80
80% 120 88
90% 136 114
95% 155 123

If you weren't convinced that the muscle ups were the real killer, the numbers above are very telling. When we first analyzed this data, we were wondering why so many seventy-eights showed up, but after further inspection, we realized that this was the exact number of reps it takes to get to your first muscle up. If you're a woman and can do two muscle ups, you jump from the twentieth percentile to the seventieth percentile. If you're a man who finished the first round of BMU's, you jump to around the fifty-sixtieth percentile.

The table below shows just how deadly those BMU's are. The one BMU stat is pretty cool though because it could represent the magic of competition. It is possible that over five thousand people completed their first muscle up this weekend.

Gender Bar Muscle Up Number %
Male No BMU 37521 29%
1 BMU 4027 3%
Female No BMU 47813 67%
1 BMU 1816 3%

REGIONAL ANALYSIS

In the spirit of competition, we thought it would be fun to break some of the stats down on a region to region basis. Since the muscle ups were the defining factor in the competition, we decided to break out each region and put the percentage of male and female athletes who were able to complete one or more muscle ups on the map.

For those of you who might not be able to see the results above, we have some more data in the tables below.   

Female Results

Region Results Rx Scaled 95% 50%
Africa 3091 1675 1416 115 78
Asia 2592 1368 1224 92 78
Australia 8950 5549 3401 122 78
Canada East 5346 3046 2300 123 78
Canada West 3079 1770 1309 117 78
Central East 8091 4569 3522 123 78
Europe 18360 10839 7521 123 78
Latin America 9324 4058 5266 120 78
Mid Atlantic 9182 5212 3970 128 78
North Central 9747 5230 4517 126 78
North East 11461 6095 5366 122 78
NorCal 4105 2393 1712 121 78
North West 5276 2970 2306 122 78
South Central 9808 5186 4622 122 78
South East 8866 4912 3954 126 78
SoCal 4779 2875 1904 125 78
South West 6584 4021 2563 126 78

Male Results

Region Results Rx Scaled 95% 50%
Africa 5145 3961 1184 152 88
Asia 5060 3889 1171 139 85
Australia 10175 8553 1622 157 89
Canada East 5744 4680 1064 160 89
Canada West 3022 2460 562 149 87
Central East 9144 7347 1797 159 89
Europe 32103 25482 6621 158 90
Latin America 15906 11387 4519 144 92
Mid Atlantic 10257 8090 2167 157 88
North Central 11095 8763 2332 161 91
North East 12389 9570 2819 157 88
NorCal 4652 3752 900 162 90
North West 5166 4158 1008 158 89
South Central 10735 8513 2222 159 89
South East 10724 8660 2064 157 90
SoCal 6061 5016 1045 162 90
South West 6977 5824 1153 159 90

It's interesting to look at the ninety-fifth percentile (95%) and see how that number stacks up on a per region basis. Many people like to argue that the regions are proportioned poorly, but we can see that in general region size was not a good predictive factor in who had the hardest region (as based on the 95%, not the top 20 performances). Top performing regions for the men were Northern (162) and Southern California (162), while top performers for the women were the Mid-Atlantic (128), with three other regions coming in second.

Lastly, if you enjoyed this article and are looking to perform better in next year's regionals, make sure to download our FREE app on iOS or Android.